Taxistas e a classe bem-pensante
"I noticed that very intelligent and informed people were at no advantage over cabdrivers in their predictions, but there was a crucial difference. Cabdrivers did not believe that they understood as much as learned people — really, they were not the experts and they knew it. Nobody knew anything, but elite thinkers thought they knew more than the rest because they were elite thinkers, and if you're a member of the elite, you automatically know more than the non-elite."
-- Nassim Taleb, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable"